Bitcoin Bulls vs. Bears: $125K Surge or $75K Dip?

Research suggests there’s a nearly 50% chance that Bitcoin will surge to $125,000 by late June.

Author

Danielle du Toit
February 14, 2025

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  • Bitcoin’s Chance of Hitting $125K by June Rises as Traders Bid on Upside: Derive

  • Coinbase Reports Best Quarter in Over a Year After Trump Win

  • Metaplanet Secures $26.1 Million to Boost Bitcoin Holdings

  • SEC Acknowledges Grayscale’s XRP and DOGE ETF Filings

A crypto researcher says there’s a nearly 50% chance that Bitcoin will surge to $125,000 by late June.

  • Bitcoin's probability of reaching $125,000 by mid-2025 rose to 44.4%, while the chance of hitting $75,000 before June dropped to 12.1%, according to Dr. Sean Dawson.

  • BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is still bearish, and predicted a potential pullback to the $70,000-$75,000 range, which he believes could trigger a "mini financial crisis."

  • Despite these predictions, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered a "Neutral" sentiment on Feb. 14, with a score of 48 out of 100.

Coinbase reported its strongest quarterly earnings in over a year, driven by surging crypto prices and trading activity after Donald Trump’s election win.

  • Coinbase’s Q4 revenue reached $2.3 billion, which was an 88% increase quarter-over-quarter. This growth was driven by a surge in crypto prices and trading activity after Donald Trump's election.

  • Net income hit $1.3 billion, surpassing analyst expectations, while trading volume soared to $439 billion.

  • Consumer transaction revenue surged 178% to $1.35 billion, and institutional revenue grew 155% to $141.3 million.

Metaplanet raised 4 billion yen, or $26.1 million, through zero-interest bonds to expand its Bitcoin holdings.

  • The firm wants to buy 10,000 BTC by Q4 of 2025 and 21,000 BTC by the end of 2026, which will require investments of approximately $957 million and $2 billion at current market prices.

  • With 1,762 BTC already held, Metaplanet is set for an aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy in the coming months.

  • Metaplanet’s strategic pivot toward Bitcoin is driven by Japan’s challenging economic conditions, including high debt levels, ongoing yen depreciation, and sustained real negative interest rates.

The SEC will very likely face a mid-October deadline to decide whether Grayscale’s XRP and Dogecoin ETFs will launch.

  • The SEC acknowledged Grayscale’s Form 19b-4 filings for the Grayscale XRP Trust and Grayscale Dogecoin Trust on Feb. 13, starting the 240-day review period.

  • If the filings are submitted now, the SEC’s decision deadline would fall in mid-October.

  • The recent SEC acknowledgments of Litecoin and Solana ETF applications suggest a shift in regulatory approach toward crypto-related listings under the Trump administration.

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