$100K Becomes Bitcoin’s Base Case!

Opinion Labs data indicates a 59.4% probability of BTC closing at or above $100,000 by Jan. 31.

Danielle du Toit
January 16, 2026

Here's what we've got for you today:

Bitcoin $100K Odds Surge as Charts Signal Repeat Rebound
Democrats Press SEC Over Dropped Crypto Cases and Justin Sun
Citron Research Says Coinbase Dropped CLARITY to Block Tokenization Rival Securitize
Solana Mobile Confirms 1.8B SKR Airdrop for Over 100,000 Users

Prediction markets and technical signals point to bullish Bitcoin positioning.

Prediction markets show rising confidence in a strong January finish for Bitcoin, with Opinion Labs data indicating a 59.4% probability of BTC closing at or above $100,000 by Jan. 31.
Liquidity is heavily concentrated around the $100,000 psychological level, while higher targets like $105,000 and $110,000 carry thinner volume.
Bearish outcomes below $90,000 attract relatively limited participation. Overall, this means that downside conviction is much weaker.

House Democrats are questioning the SEC’s decision to drop or pause multiple crypto enforcement cases.

Three Democratic lawmakers — Maxine Waters, Brad Sherman, and Sean Casten — are pressing US Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins for explanations over the agency’s decision to close or dismiss at least a dozen crypto-related enforcement actions.
They argue the SEC has broadly scaled back crypto enforcement, and pointed to those cases involving major firms like Binance, Coinbase, and Kraken.
Particular concern was raised over the prolonged pause in the SEC’s case against Justin Sun, and the lawmakers warned that extended inaction could undermine investor confidence.

Citron Research alleges Coinbase’s opposition to clearer crypto rules is rooted in competitive fears.

Citron Research claims Coinbase’s resistance to clearer crypto market rules is driven less by regulatory uncertainty and more by competitive concerns, arguing the exchange sees tokenization firm Securitize as a threat.
The short seller criticized Brian Armstrong after his comments on CNBC, framing Coinbase’s pushback against the CLARITY Act as an effort to preserve its influence and stablecoin-related revenue rather than promote industry-wide progress.
This happened as Securitize is making progress toward public markets via a planned SPAC merger with Cantor Equity Partners II, while Coinbase withdrew support for the CLARITY Act, warning the bill could effectively block tokenized equity products.

Solana Mobile unveiled a large SKR airdrop for Seeker users and developers.

Solana Mobile confirmed a major SKR airdrop for its Seeker community, and will distribute 1.819 billion tokens to more than 100,000 users, with an additional 141 million SKR allocated to developers who shipped apps during Season 1.
The rewards target active participation across the Seeker device, the Solana dApp Store, and on-chain activity on Solana.
An allocation checker is now live inside the Seed Vault Wallet, allowing users to view their tier and estimated rewards ahead of the claim window, with top-tier Sovereign users eligible for up to 750,000 SKR.

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